Global Migration to Windows Vista is not happening in 2007

Agnitum surveys show users holding onto Windows XP through 2008

ST. PETERSBURG, RUSSIA, 25 Apr. 2007 – The migration to Windows Vista is not going to happen for at least a year, according to users of Outpost Firewall Pro surveyed twice in the past six months by Russian security company Agnitum.

Agnitum’s survey results track independent polls conducted by Harris Interactive(1), Computerwoche(2) and PC Welt(3), among others, concluding that users are taking a “wait and see approach” to the new operating system.

“Users are not knocking down doors to buy Vista,” said Mikhail Penkovsky, global vice president for Marketing and Sales at Agnitum. “Of course they’ll be upgrading when it’s inevitable, but not today. Vista is the hot story of the moment. It’s new. There’s plenty of press coverage – and Microsoft does report millions of copies sold. But it is clear that our customers, and many other personal computer users, are deliberately waiting for the inevitable patches, fixes, service packs -- and better security.”

Agnitum is developing a Vista-compatible version of Outpost, an award-winning personal firewall that protects more than a million users of Windows worldwide.

“We see no need to rush to market with something as important as a personal firewall for the new OS,” said Penkovsky. “Our customers are telling us they will need a Windows XP firewall for at least the next 12 months -- and when they do move to Vista, they want a solid, fully-developed firewall to protect them. That’s the most significant message for us in these survey results.”

Agnitum surveyed users in September 2006, in English and German, as Microsoft began to ship Vista to business users. The September surveys generated results from about 600 users. Six months later, in March 2007, after sales of Vista to consumers began, Agnitum surveyed users in English and French – and the English response rate tripled.

“It’s not an exhaustive, scientific poll, but it is an accurate picture of what our users are doing and plan to do over the next 12 months or so. The significant increase in the number of users responding to the second survey is critically important to us in terms of prioritizing our own development activities,” said Penkovsky.

English results

In September, 31 percent of English-speaking users of Outpost told Agnitum they had no plans to change to Vista (table 1). Six months later, in March 2007, the number of users with no plans to change to Vista more than doubled to 69 percent (table 2).

Table 1
Will you migrate to Vista?
English-speaking users, September 2006, 469 total votes
Answer	Percentage	Votes
No plans to migrate to Vista	31.03%	145
Plan to migrate to Vista within 6 months of release	16.16%	76
Plan to migrate to Vista as soon as it’s available	15.52%	73
Plan to migrate to Vista after release of Service Pack 1 for major bug fixes	13.58%	64
Plan to migrate to Vista more than 12 months after release	12.07%	57
Plan to migrate to Vista within 12 months of release	11.64%	54

Table 2
When do you plan to migrate to Windows Vista?
English-speaking users, March 2007, 1,857 total votes
Answer	Percentage	Votes
No plans to migrate to Vista	69.25%	1286
Plan to migrate to Vista within 12 months	10.88%	202
Plan to migrate to Vista within 1 month	10.18%	189
Plan to migrate to Vista within 6 months	4.90%	91
Plan to migrate to Vista within 3 months	4.79%	89

Also in September, 31 percent reported that they would shift to Vista within six months (table 1) – a percentage that had decreased to approximately 20 percent by March 2007 (table 2).

German results

In September, nearly 53 percent of German-speaking users of Outpost told Agnitum they had no plans to migrate (table 3). Another 9.9 percent intended to wait for Vista Service Pack 1, and 8.4 percent planned to wait at least 12 months after release.

Table 3
Will you migrate to Vista?
German-speaking users, September 2006, 135 total votes
Answer	Percentage	Votes
No plans to migrate to Vista	52.67%	71
Plan to migrate to Vista within 6 months of release	13.74%	19
Plan to migrate to Vista as soon as it’s available	12.21%	17
Plan to migrate to Vista after release of Service Pack 1 for major bug fixes	9.92%	13
Plan to migrate to Vista more than 12 months after release	8.40%	11
Plan to migrate to Vista within 12 months of release	3.05%	4

For comparison, only 17 percent of users surveyed by Computerwoche(2) intend to switch to Vista during 2007 – while 69 percent said they are not considering a switch.

French results

Surveyed in March 2007, French-speaking users were nearly evenly split – 51 percent had no plans to change to Vista, while 49 percent planned to change within 12 months (table 4).

Table 4
When do you plan to migrate to Windows Vista?
French-speaking users, March 2007, 140 total votes
Answer	Percentage	Votes
No plans to change to Vista	51.13%	72
Plan to migrate to Vista within a year	22.56%	32
Plan to migrate to Vista within a month	9.77%	14
Plan to migrate to Vista within 6 months	8.27%	11
Plan to migrate to Vista within 3 months	8.27%	11

These results are similar to an unscientific poll by New Dimensions France(5) in February 2007, when 13.5 percent reported they would switch to Vista when they bought a new computer; 5.4 percent within a month of the first service pack; 10.8 percent “in a year or two”; with another 18.9 percent saying they would switch only if Vista became “inevitable.”

About Agnitum

Founded in 1999, Agnitum Ltd. (www.agnitum.com) is committed to delivering and supporting high-quality, easy to use security software. The company's products are Outpost Firewall Pro, securing personal and family desktops; Outpost Network Security, ensuring reliable endpoint protection and performance for small business networks; and Spam Terrier, a free anti-spam tool that plugs into Outlook and Outlook Express. The company is Europe's leading developer of firewall technology, which it licenses to companies as diverse as Novell, Sophos, Lavasoft, Bullguard and CAT.

For more information, contact:

Pavel Goryakin

Agnitum Ltd.

Steve Leon

Technopolis Communications Inc.

Footnotes:

Agnitum compares its results to independent polls. The French surveys at Windows Utilities and NDFR appear to report early, incomplete results:

1.  Harris Interactive, “Most potential buyers of Microsoft’s Vista take a wait and see attitude,” http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris%5Fpoll/index.asp?PID=745

2. Computewoche, http://www.computerwoche.de/index.cfm?pid=436&pk=125

3. Windows Utilities, http://www.windowsutilities.net/sondages/task,results/id,2/

4. New Dimension France, http://www.ndfr.net/forums/showthread.php?t=7857